In-Depth Analysis

October 2008

Market-at-a-Glance

The Market-at-a-Glance section contains an overall summary of the trends described in our detailed articles.

A recap of the current market indicators are as follows:

1. Resale Listings – 54,427

a. The September listing count increased by 858 (+1.6%) from the August count. The listing count has been plateaued for about the last 19 months.

2. Resale Sales – 6,179

a. Resale sales volume is up from this month in 2007 by 2,758 (80.6%) (the 2007 figure was extremely weak because of the beginning of the credit crunch).

b. Resale sales volume is up 573 sales from this month in 2006.

c. Resale sales volume is down 3,034 from this month in 2005 (the 2005 figure was very inflated by speculator activity).

d. Resale sales volume is down 2,497 from this month in 2004 (the 2004 figure was very inflated by speculator activity).

e. Resale sales volume is down 689 from this month in 2003.

f. Resale sales volume is up 637 from this month in 2002.

g. Resale sales volume is up 1,378 from this month in 2001.

3. Median Resale Sales Price - $170,000

a. The median August sales price is down by $15,000 from August 2008.

b. The median sales price has declined $88,000 in the last eleven months.

c. The median sales price is $90,000 below the September 2005 level.

d. The appreciation rate for the last thirty-six months (September 2005 to present) is a negative 11.5% on an annualized basis.

4. New Home Market

a. The number of New Home specs in October increased by 70 from the September count to 2,554*. The record level was in October 2006 at 4,692. Prior to February 2006 the record was 2,400 homes.

b. The number of new home subdivisions selling declined for the eleventh straight month; down by 24 to 901 (the largest number ever recorded prior to 2006 was 813 in May 2003).

5. REO – Because this has become a significant market segment, we will release our first article on Lender Owned Properties within the next ten days. Click here for more details.

The spec inventory remains well above norm. That level is still substantially above the level that has historically been healthy for our market. It will take more time and continued restraint to get the inventory level back into a normal range for our market.

Resale sales have achieved a level near or above the 2001 level for three consecutive months after being below the 2001 level for sixteen months and exceed the 2002 same month level for the first time in 18 months. I believe that the median resale price is bumping bottom. We are very near to a turning point, but there will need to be a lot of recovery before the market returns to a healthy balance. The wildcard concerning market recovery is the economy and the credit crisis, but I am not qualified to access that impact.

The general press is reporting housing market information that is six to nine months old. The In-Depth Analysis Newsletter provides current information that you need to serve your buyers and sellers and to help them understand what is happening in today’s market.

Side Note

*I personally believe the quantity of New Home specs we are reporting is only about one half of the true number – making the actual count 4,500 - 5,500. On a different subject – I believe there are the best deals available in the real estate market that we may ever see. If I were an investment counselor (I am not), I would say that if you have the need and the money, look for the deals and buy now!